Elevated Probability of Human Fatalities


The rising threat of space debris re-entering Earth’s atmosphere and causing injuries or even fatalities is now more significant than the danger posed by natural meteorites, according to recent research. The study found that there is a 2.9% chance of harm from falling space debris, a risk that has surged due to the uncontrolled descent of obsolete satellites, used rocket components, and other space operation remnants. Nearly 1,000 incidents of large space debris plummeting towards Earth have been recorded since 2010, highlighting the urgency of this issue.

The threat level is higher than incidents like lightning strikes, which hold a one in 15,300 probability in the United States, or shark attacks, which have a one in 3.7 million chance. Notable instances of space debris incidents, such as the uncontrolled re-entry of a Chinese rocket booster in 2022, underscore the necessity for new protective strategies.

Simultaneously, a Swedish court has recently decreed that meteorites, like a 14-kilogram specimen that recently fell, are categorized as immovable property. This means they are equivalent to other stones found on the ground and can be claimed by landowners. This ruling impacts the interaction between space phenomena and property laws, creating a legal precedent that equates meteorites to terrestrial material once they reach the Earth’s surface.

The commercial space industry has seen significant growth over the past decade, resulting in an overcrowded low Earth orbit (LEO) and contributing to the space debris issue. The repercussions of this growth go beyond scientific concerns, with the 2.9% risk of injury or fatality from re-entering space debris indicating potential real-world casualties. The risk multiplies exponentially as active satellites and spent rocket stages collide, creating cascades of debris, a phenomenon known as the Kessler Syndrome.

Predictions suggest continual increases in the number of satellites launched into orbit, fueled by the demand for global internet coverage and advances in space technology. However, this growth also suggests a corresponding increase in space debris, emphasizing the need for robust space traffic management systems.

The challenge of space debris has revealed severe deficiencies in global space governance. International guidelines proposed by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee aim to control the creation of new debris, but they are voluntary and frequently unenforced. Active debris removal (ADR) and on-orbit servicing (OSS) are potential solutions that are attracting significant research and development investment. Various stakeholders are exploring ways to reduce risks through improved debris monitoring and satellite designs that ensure end-of-life deorbiting.

The ruling by the Swedish court on meteorites presents an interesting convergence of space law and terrestrial property rights. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty asserts that space and celestial bodies are free for exploration and are not subject to national appropriation. However, once space material reaches Earth, the legal framework changes to national property laws. This complex legal interplay raises questions about extraterrestrial resource ownership and liability for damage caused by re-entering space debris.

In summary, the threat posed by space debris to human safety is increasing, and industry growth and market forecasts suggest this problem will proliferate. The development of effective solutions and international cooperation is paramount to ensure the sustainable use of outer space and the safety of people on the ground.



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